SPC has dragged the risk area north a touch, at this point i am not seeing why. I still think the bigger show is going to be in the buckeye and hoosier states for the overnight Saturday. None the less here we go.
Severe ThreatSPC has dragged the slight risk area up to Appoxmently M-59. A Moderate Risk remains just south of the broader of Michigan into Ohio and Indiana.
Severe storms have fire at the time of this blog with Tornado Warnings just to the SW of Chicago. These storms will congeal together into a complex tonight and become a wind threat along with a tornado threat.
Here's the Hail threat, thats the least of my worries for the overnight Saturday. But one or two storms may produce hail up to an inch or greater. 
Here's the Tornado Threat. The 5% has been edged up to about I94 in MI. The 10% Hatched area in Indiana means that there is chance of a strong tornado (EF-2 or greater) with in a 25mile point. The token 2% extends up to M-59.
Damaging Wind Threat Here's what I think is going to be the main story once we really get into the overnight. The Damgaing winds. As you can see most of IN/OH north of I-70 is hatched for significant wind damage with-in a 25mile point area. The northern tail end of this wind damaging complex might poke into parts of southern lower MI. Thats why the southern counties of lower MI are in the 30% for Damaging winds for the overnight Saturday.
Basicly, its M-59 south for severe weather for the overnight. Isolated chance of a hail storm and a tornado. Chances of a damaging wind storm are better as you head south of I94. And in fact for any severe weather threat, the further south you are of Detroit the better. Heavy Rain though will be an issue as a surface low presure causing the storms will roll right over Metro Detroit. Mix that in with a Low Level Jet and a Upper Level Jet max pushing into Lake Michigan. This is a nice set up for Heavy Rain. A Flood Watch is in effect for areas along and south of I-69/96.
TK
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