Major Severe Weather Outbreak Possible Wed

A major severe weather outbreak is forecasted across the Lower Great Lakes on Wednesday. Large hail, Damaging Winds and a few Tornadoes are possible across Lower Michigan south of a Tawas/Mt. Plesant line. The Moderate risk below extends into Northern Indiana and Northern Illinois, Including Chicago.

Storm Prediction Center 6/23/2010 Outlook

Tornado Outlook, More of a elevated risk for tornadoes than any other day across Lower Michigan, Chicago Area, Northern Indiana and NW Ohio.

Hail Outlook for 6/23 ( Hatched Area indicates a chance of Signifacant Hail Golf ball size or larger with-in a 25 mile point) This includes the GR, Bend, Quads, and Chicago areas.

Severe Wind Outlook for 6/23 shows a 45% chance and a Hatch area for severe wind across all of the great lakes south of Tawas MI to areas south of Green Bay WI. The hatched area means that there is a chance of significant severe wind in excess of 70mph with in a 25 mile point.

We are going to have 2 waves of severe weather Wednesday, first will be Wednesday morning as a MCS currently in Iowa will move towards lake michigan and southern lower MI Wednesday morning, main threat with this is a few isolated severe wind reports out of it. But mainly this MCS (Meso Scale Covective Complex System) will just rain and lighting.

Most of the Strong wording from the storm prediction center is for the Afternoon Wednesday and Night Hours Wednesday. Here's my gut feeling on all of this, and im not totally sold on the event yet. Or in other words i'm not going all in on the blackjack table of weather.

My question is in the whole picture is will the atomosphere destablize once again for round two. If it can, then we are in for a wild ride on Wednesday. If it doesn't, then the storms are going to have less of an favorible eviroment to work with.

The set up is a cold front that will be possibly blasting into upper 80s and lower 90s temperatures. Dewpoints will as be warm in the 70s, this "should" create an unstable atomosphere. I say should because its going to be close but I think the atmosphere can destablize its self. Thoughts on why it may not are a sectence above.

I gut feeling is this, will have the first MCS blow through the lower lakes between 5am and 10am Wed, and east of Detroit by no later than lunch time. Looking for the sun to come out, and temps to take a run at 90 south of the warm front with unbearible dewpoints Wednesday in the 70s. Around 3 or 4pm Wednesday im going to be looking for storms to fire around Chicago, NW Indiana and West Michigan. These storms from about 3-7 will have the greatest chance to produce tornadoes. In addition, I can't rule out a tornado producing storm in SE MI and NW Ohio during that time frame as well. Then I'd say around or after 7 these storms will form a squall line and head for Metro Detorit between 6 and Midnight. At that time the threat will be severe wind, possibly up to 70mph or stronger. An isolated spin up (tornado) can't be ruled out on the line.

I Will be watching through out Wednesday. Please use caution if you have any outdoor activies on Wednesday Evening, such as golf, baseball or Dave Mattews at DTE. Be on alert and have a plan of action if severe weather threatins you're location. Have a safe place to go if a tornado/severe t-storm warning is issued for you're area.

TK