Severe Weather

Quick update on the severe weather. Severe T-Storm Watch is in effect until 7pm for lower MI south of 96/69, NW OH and IN... What to expect is storms that are in SW lower MI to continue to push east. Some of these storms maybe severe wtih damaging winds the main threat. But with some shear in the atmoshpere a tornado or two can't be ruled out.

will have updates as needed.

TK

Tornado Warning

Jackson County until 915, Tornado part of the storm to track around Spring Arbor then south of Jackson

Severe T-Storm Warnings

Calhoun and Jackson Counties in MI until 9:15 for large hail and damaging winds in excess of 60mph. Cass and St. Joesph Counties in SW MI until 9:30 for Large Hail and Damaging winds in excess of 60mph.

Severe Wx Update

Tornado Warnings have now been issued for La Porte and St. Joseph County in Indiana for the SOuth Bend Area, Severe T-Storm warnings are in effect for Cass and Berrien Counties in SW lower MI. Storms are making a move across the lake

TK

Tornado Watch

Tornado Watch has been issued for SW lower MI, parts of NW Ohio and Northern Indiana until 1am. Line of storms you can see on the map will continue to progess eastward through the night. Also you can see storms starting to pop in SW lower Michigan. Damaging Winds and Tornadoes are the main threats with this, Metro Detroit is not under a Tornado Watch at this time. But I'm still expecting this line of storms to be in our area after 11pm and still packing a good punch.

Tornado watch extends from Lansing to Fort Wayne IN and West towards Lake Michigan.

Ill keep updating the blog as ness.

TK

Severe Weather Update

In a holding pattern now in Lower Michigan for storms. Moderate risk Wednesday afternoon was trimed to roughly a Port Huron to Lansing to Benton Harbor Line and South/Southeast. Storms are starting to fire west of Chicago and im expecting those storms to form a bow echo line and move through Southern Michigan between 7pm and Midnight. Main threat from this will be severe winds possibly up to 70mph or stronger. An isolated tornado can't be ruled out as well.

In addition, Isolated cells may form in Lower Michigan and Northern Indiana before the main line pushes through, This is where the tornado threat will be maximized.

Once we get through tonight, Weather looks very nice Thursday and for Friday's Jobbie Noonier blow out!

Iam expecting some sort of weather watch to be issed before 7pm. Once that happens ill have a new blog.

TK

Shake, Rattle and Roll.

A 5.5 earthquake centered east of Toronto happened appoxmently around 1:40pm eastern. The quake was felt as far west of Chicago and as far south of New York. I personally didn't feel any shaking motion. But a heard a couple of weird sounds in the house. Then a couple mins later I find out about the earthquake. So pretty much 2 and 2 together with that.

So far ive heard nothing about damaging into Canada.

TK

Severe T-Storm Watch

Severe T-Storm watch is in efffect for lower Michigan until 3pm. This is round number 1 Wedenesday. This round's main threats will be severe wind in excess of 60mph. Isolated tornado can't be ruled out.

Will catch a break, then later this afternoon a sigificant severe weather outbreak still remains posible. More on that in the last blog.

TK

Major Severe Weather Outbreak Possible Wed

A major severe weather outbreak is forecasted across the Lower Great Lakes on Wednesday. Large hail, Damaging Winds and a few Tornadoes are possible across Lower Michigan south of a Tawas/Mt. Plesant line. The Moderate risk below extends into Northern Indiana and Northern Illinois, Including Chicago.

Storm Prediction Center 6/23/2010 Outlook

Tornado Outlook, More of a elevated risk for tornadoes than any other day across Lower Michigan, Chicago Area, Northern Indiana and NW Ohio.

Hail Outlook for 6/23 ( Hatched Area indicates a chance of Signifacant Hail Golf ball size or larger with-in a 25 mile point) This includes the GR, Bend, Quads, and Chicago areas.

Severe Wind Outlook for 6/23 shows a 45% chance and a Hatch area for severe wind across all of the great lakes south of Tawas MI to areas south of Green Bay WI. The hatched area means that there is a chance of significant severe wind in excess of 70mph with in a 25 mile point.

We are going to have 2 waves of severe weather Wednesday, first will be Wednesday morning as a MCS currently in Iowa will move towards lake michigan and southern lower MI Wednesday morning, main threat with this is a few isolated severe wind reports out of it. But mainly this MCS (Meso Scale Covective Complex System) will just rain and lighting.

Most of the Strong wording from the storm prediction center is for the Afternoon Wednesday and Night Hours Wednesday. Here's my gut feeling on all of this, and im not totally sold on the event yet. Or in other words i'm not going all in on the blackjack table of weather.

My question is in the whole picture is will the atomosphere destablize once again for round two. If it can, then we are in for a wild ride on Wednesday. If it doesn't, then the storms are going to have less of an favorible eviroment to work with.

The set up is a cold front that will be possibly blasting into upper 80s and lower 90s temperatures. Dewpoints will as be warm in the 70s, this "should" create an unstable atomosphere. I say should because its going to be close but I think the atmosphere can destablize its self. Thoughts on why it may not are a sectence above.

I gut feeling is this, will have the first MCS blow through the lower lakes between 5am and 10am Wed, and east of Detroit by no later than lunch time. Looking for the sun to come out, and temps to take a run at 90 south of the warm front with unbearible dewpoints Wednesday in the 70s. Around 3 or 4pm Wednesday im going to be looking for storms to fire around Chicago, NW Indiana and West Michigan. These storms from about 3-7 will have the greatest chance to produce tornadoes. In addition, I can't rule out a tornado producing storm in SE MI and NW Ohio during that time frame as well. Then I'd say around or after 7 these storms will form a squall line and head for Metro Detorit between 6 and Midnight. At that time the threat will be severe wind, possibly up to 70mph or stronger. An isolated spin up (tornado) can't be ruled out on the line.

I Will be watching through out Wednesday. Please use caution if you have any outdoor activies on Wednesday Evening, such as golf, baseball or Dave Mattews at DTE. Be on alert and have a plan of action if severe weather threatins you're location. Have a safe place to go if a tornado/severe t-storm warning is issued for you're area.

TK

Tuesday Forecast

Looking at a dry day for Tuesday, ya thats hard to believe after Tuesday Morning's rain, but the rest of the day should remain dry. Ill throw a token 20% chance that a Tuesday afternoon storm or a lake breeze storm might fire up. Bigger story is going to be the hot and humid conditions for Tuesday as highs will be in the lower 90s, combine that with sticky dewpoints near 70. Heat Indexs will approach the upper 90s, possibly 100.









Another complex will move through the state on Tuesday Night and into Wednesday morning. Where is the big question? and its going to be a huge question. Becasue if this complex takes the Big Rapids, Mt . Pleasant route. This sets up a very scary sutition on Wednesday for areas in southern lower Michigan south of a Saginaw, Alma to Grand Rapids line . And I'm talking to the point where you might need to review you're tornado safety plans for Wednesday. If it takes a Lansing to Detroit route, that should somewhat stablzie the atmosphere in Lower Michigan and make it a less of a severe weather threat. SPC outlook so far ( at the top of the page) right now its a slight risk but ive never seen a 45% for the lower lakes 2 days out and thats what concerns me.









Wednesday's set will see an area of Low Presure moves through, Upper level low in the UP and vort max moving through Lake Michigan pushing into a hot and humid air mass on Wednesday as we push towards 90 once agian.











Thursday and Friday (Jobbie Nooner Day ;) ) looks nice and dry and temps in the 80s. Thursday looks less humid. But Friday the humidity may start to return.





TK

Severe Weather Update

Ok as ok this post it looks like the strongest part of the storms should still cross the Detroit Metro between 3-5am...

Severe T-Storm Watch

Severe T-Storm watch is in effect for all of Southern Lower Michigan until 7am. Main threat during the overnight will be damaging winds at or greater than 60mph. A nice MCS has takin shape over Lake Michigan and looks to hold together pretty nice. This will move through Southern Michigan during the overnight. ETA's are Grand Rapids/Kzoo 1:30am, Lansing/127 cordoor around 3am , Western Detroit Metro A2 4am and The heart of the Metro Detroit around 5am.

More updates through the night

Kippen!!

Eric Kowalik Weekend Forecast

My buddy said no more blogs forecast this weekend while in Chicago. Ok here we go. Not one, but TWO! Squall Lines hit Chicago. Round number 1 scored the most damage I believe. With glass in some parts of Downtown Chicago and some other flying objects. Well the front clear, and the weekend looks great!

Kip!

Same forecast goes for the lakes as well :)

Wet Start

It's going to be a wet start to Wednesday. But the good news is conditions should improve starting Wednesday around lunch time, then the afternoon hours look great with highs near 80.

Will start to warm things up as we head towards Friday and into the weekend. Friday and Saturday temps will be close to 90 in Southern Lower MI. If you're going north, heads up in its going to be a sticky one. FYI if you're cottage has no AC. Chance of storms moves in during the afternoon Saturday.

TK

Into The Weekend

Humidity is going to be on rise. 60 and possible 70 dewpoints will be in Lower Michigan by Friday Night. Temps look to be in the 80s through Sunday. Chance of storms each and everyday through Sunday.

TK

Rainy and Cool

Will have a rainy start to this forecast period. Good news is that the heavy rain will stay south of Detroit into Ohio and Indiana. Why iam saying good news is because the I-94 coredoor took a major hit on Saturday night with the heavy rain. So through Wednesday it going to be cool with on and off light rain. Temps will be in the low to mid 50s Wednesday morning and with a mainly cloudy setting for Wednesday Afternoon temps are going to struggle to get out of the 60s in most locations. In fact I wouldn't be surprised to see Northern Michigan warmer than downstate.

Thursday- The nicest day of the week. Thats all you need to know.

Friday into the weekend, will see the temps warm back up agian. Friday's forecast is kidda tricky. We are going to have a warm front poised to move north, infact this warm front is going to take a run at Northern Lower Michigan up towards Rogers City Possibly. Depending on the model you want to believe in. 12z GFS sends the warm front through loud with storms, 18z GFS not to much fan fare. So at this point will leave a chance of storms in for Friday, espeically late. Saturday there will be a slight chance of storms and a better chance of Sunday as a cold front will be pushing through the state. It will be humid Saturday and Sunday with temps in the mid to possibly upper 80s. Next week looks to start off cooler.

TK

Weather Forecast Monday Night 22z

A cool night ahead for the Great Lakes as an area of high pressure rolls in. Dewpoints Monday Afternoon where in the 40s across Wisconsin. Frost Advisories (yes in June!) have been posted for inland/higher terrain areas of Northern Lower Michigan, as temps are expected to drop in the low to mid 30s. Southern Lower Michigan will not see as cold of readings. But temps in the 40s away from city heat islands a good bet. Low 50s for Metro Detroit.

Tuesday I think we will ekk out enought sunshine to make it into the 70s, Tuesday night the next storm system is going to push into the Great Lakes. There is a chance of severe weather I believe for Tuesday Night, low level instabibity, triple point hangin out somewhere in the southern half of the state and a nice jet streak to the west will possibly aid in severe weather. Keeping my fingers crossed that its not a repete of Saturday Night. But heavy rain once again is possible Tuesday and Wednesday morning.

After a break from the Rain Thursday, The other forecast highlight in this blog is the Hot and Muggy temperatures in store for Friday, Saturday and possibly Sunday and Monday. A warm front will push on through Friday, Question if it will touch off a storm is still up in the air, but that warm front will kick the open the door for higher dewpoints and muggy conditions.

Weekend is looking hot and stormy, temps still in question along with storm chances as well. HPC , GFS and the Euro do have precip in the on Saturday. The forecast differences are that the euro model makes a quick end to the storms and heat/humidity. GFS continues the pattern into early next week. Something that will be ironed out as we get closer to the weekend. But upper 80s temperatures along with upper 60 dewpoints are looking possible starting Friday.

TK

Severe Threat

Ok, this is the latest and greatest on the possibly of severe weather.

SPC has dragged the risk area north a touch, at this point i am not seeing why. I still think the bigger show is going to be in the buckeye and hoosier states for the overnight Saturday. None the less here we go.

Severe Threat

SPC has dragged the slight risk area up to Appoxmently M-59. A Moderate Risk remains just south of the broader of Michigan into Ohio and Indiana.

Severe storms have fire at the time of this blog with Tornado Warnings just to the SW of Chicago. These storms will congeal together into a complex tonight and become a wind threat along with a tornado threat.

Here's the Hail threat, thats the least of my worries for the overnight Saturday. But one or two storms may produce hail up to an inch or greater.

Here's the Tornado Threat. The 5% has been edged up to about I94 in MI. The 10% Hatched area in Indiana means that there is chance of a strong tornado (EF-2 or greater) with in a 25mile point. The token 2% extends up to M-59.

Damaging Wind Threat

Here's what I think is going to be the main story once we really get into the overnight. The Damgaing winds. As you can see most of IN/OH north of I-70 is hatched for significant wind damage with-in a 25mile point area. The northern tail end of this wind damaging complex might poke into parts of southern lower MI. Thats why the southern counties of lower MI are in the 30% for Damaging winds for the overnight Saturday.

Basicly, its M-59 south for severe weather for the overnight. Isolated chance of a hail storm and a tornado. Chances of a damaging wind storm are better as you head south of I94. And in fact for any severe weather threat, the further south you are of Detroit the better. Heavy Rain though will be an issue as a surface low presure causing the storms will roll right over Metro Detroit. Mix that in with a Low Level Jet and a Upper Level Jet max pushing into Lake Michigan. This is a nice set up for Heavy Rain. A Flood Watch is in effect for areas along and south of I-69/96.

TK

Forecast 6-5-10 0z Sunday

Will have another blog out by 10pm hitting on the severe weather for Saturday Night. Just heads up for Saturday night for most of Lower Michigan its just going to be a heavy rain event. Most of the nasty severe weather (and when I mean nasty, I mean possible strong tornadoes) should stay in Northern Indiana and Northern Ohio. But there is a chance, especially along and south of I-94 for the overnight. like I said ill hit that in the next blog for the possibly of tornadoes, and damaging winds. I am just waiting for SPC's new outlook at 1z (9pm eastern).

Going to jump to Sunday's forecast. Talk about a major 180 in temps. From Humid and temps in the 80s Saturday to almost early fall like Sunday with AM rain, temps struggling to get to 70 and less humid.

Monday=Best weather day of the week as an area of high pressure will be over the great lakes. Highs will be in the mid 70s with little or no humidity.

Tuesday right through Saturday... We return to a chance of rain for early day as a stationary boundary is going to park it somewhere in IN/OH. By Friday, the stationary boundary looks to lift on up to the north according to the GFS. This looks to open the door for some hot weather Friday and on Saturday along with some muggy conditions. Temps may push well into the 90s next Saturday.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0257.html

Severe T-Storm Watch is ineffect until Midnight

Stormy Weekend ...

There is a slight risk of severe weather Friday night in Lower MI south of I-69. Main threats for Friday Night is large hail and damaging winds. An isolated tornado can't be ruled out.

Muggy muggy muggy for Friday Night. Dewpoints (confort level) are in the 70s to the SW Of Michigan. I not looking for 70 + dewpoints to move into the area Friday night. but 60s sound like a good bet. Fog may develop as well, espeically near the lakes.

Saturday, there is a really good smoking chance for severe weather in Indiana and Ohio. Infact the Storm Prediction Center in Norman OK has "Hatched" (in the light blue) Indiana and Ohio for possible significant severe weather and possible strong tornadoes. Lower MI won't see that, but heavy rain is possible late Saturday Night and maybe an isolated severe storm. Temps will push for 80 Saturday. NW winds take over Sunday and temps struggle to get to possibly 70 in Southern Lower MI. 60s a good bet north.

Monday and beyond, First part of the work week looks good with mild temps and sunshine. 70s for highs Monday and Tuesday. Wed and Thu, a warm front looks to make a push through the mid-west... this may open the door for possible storms Wed and Thu ... This may also open the door for a heat wave , later next week..