What a mild January day!!

Temps have made it into the 50s as far north as Alpena MI. As of 4pm at Detroit Metro Aiport it was 53.

Today's blog is going to be a little quick hitting. But below you can see the mild temperatures in Michigan. You can also see colder, well lets say cooler temperatures off to the west. These cooler temperatures will move in for the weekend. Still above seasonable avg highs for this time of year which is 32 and 20 at Detroit Metro.

Heads up for the middle of next week. Big changes look to be in store for our weather pattern. Believe it or not I think we possibly score another day mild like this Monday and possibly Tuesday. Then things look to go down hill Wednesday and into late next week. With a return to winter and temperatures going below seasonable averages. Rain or snow (thinking right now starting as rain then going to snow) is in the forecast for Wednesday and early Thursday. Enjoy your Friday!!

March like weather in January

Record highs got smashed today in the upper midwest. In some areas by 10 degrees or more. Check this out below from the National Weather Service office in Des Moines, Iowa!

Here is a 4pm eastern national surface chart. This map looks like late March, early April vs the

first week in January.

Temperatures out to the west of the Great lakes were in the 50s/60s. That is coming for the lakes on Friday. With some modification due to the snow pack in West Michigan. But I think highs in the mid/upper 40s and low 50s should be reasonable for Friday afternoon temperatures.

Only things that may hinder the warming on Friday is that we do have a nice inversion layer setting up roughly from 875mb down to the surface (Circled in the hot pink). There will be some moisture streaming in on a 15mph southerly wind late Thursday into Friday. Not so concerned about fog forming Late Thu/Friday. But stratus clouds could be a possibly early on Friday and Limit the heating into the 40s. Along with a low January sun angle not helping us much either.

Saturday through next Tuesday looks quiet with above normal temperatures. Long range models do indicate a "possible" major pattern change for the middle to later part of next week. 1-11-12 to 1-13-12 ish. With in the cards another good rain event or possibly a snow event.

Models Below for the middle of next week.

This is the Canadian model valid at 12z Wed. Right before a possible phase in the middle of next week. Then a trough/arctic invasion behind the system.

Here is the Euro showing a possible app runner with strong arctic invasion behind it.

Finally the GFS showing a bomb off the east coast with an arctic invasion behind the system.

Stay Tuned!!

January Thaw?

After a couple of cold days. We are going back to regular schedule programming known as the winter of 2011-12. Meaning yes another thaw is on the way, along with no major storms at least through this upcoming Monday.

Wednesday Jan 4th believe it or not is known as the day that the earth is closest to the sun. This is what is know as the perihelion. Here is a link below with more information on it.

http://earthsky.org/tonight/earth-comes-closest-to-sun-every-year-in-early-january

Thursday, Friday and for the most part lets call it the weekend. Temperatures will be running once again above average. Highs on Thursday will be back in the 30s. With Friday's temps well into the 40s for the southern and central part of Michigan with 30s north.

After a weak system passes through the great lakes Sunday and brings a brush of cold air to start the work week. Long range models of the Euro and the GFS continue to "hint" at a storm system. Still 7 days out but right now, based of the GFS below and the euro. The cold air is still locked up to the northwest and the phasing of the two jets would be late. Making this a open wave or a small event as it moves through the great lakes.

Interesting note today in the Detroit NWS afternoon forecast discussion. There has been above normal monthly average temperatures since May of 2011 (Metro Airport AOS). Yes January is starting out mild. But I took a venture down index lane today and the two maps I have down below are the AO and NAO outlooks. The explainer link is below. But basically, if those two indexes are negative combined with a positive PNA. This would tend to lead towards colder air and slower storm paths (more snow) with a Greenland blocking high. Both the NAO and the AO are forecasted to go negative and the PNA is forecasted to go neutral/slightly negavtive /http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/pi/NAO/

AO Outlook showing the AO going negative by mid Jan .

NAO outlook- Also showing it swinging towards Negative.